This is not corporate risk-taking. It is procurement capture. By the time the Pentagon competes the work, only one or two primes will have active production lines, and the solicitation language will be written around what is already being built.
The pattern is coordinated across at least three firms. L3Harris on infrared missile tracking, Lockheed Martin on orbital command-and-control and RPO, BAE Systems on refuelable maneuverable platforms via the Ascent bus. Each is committing capital against capabilities the Space Force wants but has not yet bought. Lockheed’s Tim Lynch told reporters the firm is “lining up a whole ecosystem, a framework, of being able to acquire at speed.” That phrasing describes building the supplier base the government will have to buy from.
White House OMB documents show Golden Dome funding has grown to $38.9 billion, with Congress directing roughly $24 billion through 2025 reconciliation and additional FY2026 appropriations. The architecture remains classified. Watch which firms win the first tranche of competitive awards. If the winners match the firms that self-funded ahead of the RFP, the capture is complete.