Analysis
China’s Maritime Architecture Is Hardening Downward
The visible layers are being demoted. The hidden layers are absorbing the workload.
The Kill Chain Goes Classified
How a four-page memo, a frontier lab purge, and a $1.3 billion contract rewrote the operating system of American war.
The Grid Goes Classified
A 2015 grid security statute written for the nuclear weapons complex is now being used to pull commercial AI data centers into a defense-energy framework. The architecture is in place. The list is sealed by law.
The Gap Between Guarantors
Mali’s junta was quietly returning to Washington when JNIM struck Bamako and Russia began negotiating its retreat from the north.
Past OFAC, Past Destroyers.
Three IMO numbers, two database searches, and a shadow fleet built for exactly this moment.
The Dead Ship Registry
How zombie tankers use the identities of scrapped ships to move sanctioned cargo through the world’s most-watched chokepoint
The Malacca Wire
Washington’s Indonesia defense pact is not an alliance upgrade. It is part of a chokepoint architecture
The Wrong Factory
How Elbit Systems’ European footprint became a targeting map for actors striking Ukraine’s defense supply chain
The Surveillance Economy
A Hangzhou startup with no satellites tracked the U.S. military’s pre-strike posture in real time. The imagery came from American companies. Washington has no answer for that.
The Closed Loop
Russia refined Iran’s drone in Ukraine, is now sending it back, and is photographing US bases for Tehran. Ukraine is the only country that has fought this weapon at scale.
The Export Chain
Ukraine is no longer just striking Russian oil facilities. It is systematically attacking the export terminals, refineries, and transport nodes that turn energy into war finance.
How Iran Is Still Firing
The mechanics keeping Iran’s missile and drone campaign alive
The Hidden Layer of Iran’s Drone Industry
Why hitting factories and bases is not the same as collapsing production
Hrulf: In His Own Words
Jean-François Ratelle commanded the Norman Brigade, fought for Ukraine, and was killed in March 2024. Before he died, he sat down with me and explained why he was there
The Drone Clock: How Long Can Iran Sustain Its Campaign?
A five-variable sustainability model for Iran’s one-way attack drone campaign.
The Pressure Trap
How Iran’s campaign to coerce the Gulf is accelerating the regional alignment it was meant to prevent.
Mapping Iran’s Drone War Infrastructure
The network of production sites, bases, and launch nodes targeted in Operation Epic Fury
Can Money Buy Ukraine’s Playbook?
What the Gulf Can and Cannot Learn from the Drone War in Ukraine
Threat forward: Iran Doesn’t Need to Close the Strait. It Just Needs to Keep It Expensive.
How war risk premiums became Tehran’s most effective weapon
The Architect Returns
Ahmad Vahidi helped build Iran’s proxy network decades ago. Now he’s back in charge as the system he designed goes to war.
The Axis Without a Head
Iran’s command structure is gone. But in Iraq, the militias it built are still armed, still funded, and already shooting back.
The Warning Wasn’t Theatrics
A step-by-step look at how Iranian-backed militias are signaling readiness as U.S. force posture shifts in Iraq
The Footprint: China’s Space Infrastructure in Latin America, Examined
A satellite imagery analysis of China’s deep space station in Argentina’s Patagonia region.
Iran: Window Closing
An open-source assessment of strike indicators
Europe’s Postwar Reckoning
Europe isn’t just facing a defense crisis. It’s facing an identity crisis over what the postwar settlement was and whether it’s over.