Analysis
Long-form OSINT analysis and national security reporting, built from imagery, registries and the public record.
September 2026
Ukraine Is Fighting Russia in Africa
Kyiv is using drone expertise to expand its reach from Libya’s coast to northern Mali, while operations against Russia bring diplomatic costs.
Ukraine Keeps Striking Russia’s Antenna Plant While the Main Shahed Factory Buys From China
Alabuga is adding defenses and reportedly assembling Chinese-origin antennas on site, giving the factory an antenna supply route outside Cheboksary.
A Chinese Satellite Tied to Iran Passed Near the Jordan Base Days Before the Strike
US officials linked the Jordan strike to imagery from Chinese entities. Global Recon reconstructed four midday passes near the base by a satellite reportedly acquired by Iran. Its role in supplying that imagery remains unconfirmed.
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Bypass Is Under Attack
A pipeline strike from Iraq and Houthi pressure on Red Sea shipping expose the limits of Saudi Arabia’s alternative to Hormuz.
The Houthis Are Advancing on the Red Sea’s Southern Exit
Their coastal gains could deepen pressure on Saudi Arabia’s oil bypass, whose cargoes already reroute through Egypt when the strait is too risky.
America Is Sinking Tankers That Also Carry Russian Oil
Three of the eight hulls hit since September 5 sit in a Treasury-listed pool that loads in the Baltic as well as the Gulf.
The Houthis’ Red Sea War Has a Land Front
The fighting west of Taiz is testing whether Yemen’s government can keep its coastal foothold connected to the interior.
Russia Built an Arctic Oil Port Before It Built the Ships
The pipeline is rated for 100 million tonnes a year. The one tanker at the berth that can work it in winter can move, by one analyst’s estimate, about eight percent of phase one.
Alex Pineschi Knew the Difference Between Fighting and Serving
The Italian veteran spent five years fighting ISIS and warned foreign volunteers that courage was not enough. His last war ended near Lyman on Ukraine’s eastern front.
August 2026
Is Russia Sabotaging Europe’s Ammunition Factories?
Two explosions in four days hit plants tied to Europe’s ammunition network. Moscow has attacked this infrastructure before, and the EU was already paying to defend it.
The Radar Plane Is No Longer Enough
Ukraine built the cheap sensor layer, Western firms are moving radar onto unmanned aircraft, and the Pentagon is betting on space. Air surveillance is becoming a stack rather than a single platform.
The Threat Inside NATO
A decoy Air Force One flight revealed what Washington believes about Iranian operational reach inside NATO territory. No official document will ever state it as plainly.
June 2026
Ukrainian Drones Are Hunting Russia’s Land Bridge to Crimea
Moscow hardened Crimea’s supply lines against another Kerch Bridge strike. Cheap long-range drones are turning that redundancy into exposure.
The Magazine Math
The Iran campaign did not empty the Pacific arsenal. It emptied the shelf slowest to restock, and the plan to refill it from another direction runs through a supply line Beijing can shut.
The Drone Does Not Have to Be Steered
Russia’s advantage on NATO’s eastern flank is not control of every drone. It is the political crisis created when no one can prove why the drone crossed.
May 2026
The Same Corridor
Belarus turned its frontier into a multi-use pressure system. Migrants, tunnels, drones, balloons, and saboteurs are different payloads moving through the same operating space.
Ukraine’s Drone War Has Crossed the Saturation Line
The May 17 attack on Moscow was not a capital story. It was a production story. Ukraine has built enough long-range drone volume to make Russian air defense the constrained resource.
The Gulf Did Not Stay Out
The Iran war did not unify the GCC. It exposed four divergent Gulf postures: Emirati escalation, Saudi contradiction, Kuwaiti ambiguity, Qatari restraint, and an Iraq too compromised to protest.
The Constellation Is the Weapon
Guowang was filed, built, and launched as state infrastructure. Broadband is the cover story.
China’s Maritime Architecture Is Hardening Downward
The visible layers are being demoted. The hidden layers are absorbing the workload.
The Kill Chain Goes Classified
How a four-page memo, a frontier lab purge, and a $1.3 billion contract rewrote the operating system of American war.
The Grid Goes Classified
A 2015 grid security statute written for the nuclear weapons complex is now being used to pull commercial AI data centers into a defense-energy framework. The architecture is in place. The list is sealed by law.
April 2026
The Gap Between Guarantors
Mali’s junta was quietly returning to Washington when JNIM struck Bamako and Russia began negotiating its retreat from the north.
Past OFAC, Past Destroyers.
Three IMO numbers, two database searches, and a shadow fleet built for exactly this moment.
The Dead Ship Registry
How zombie tankers use the identities of scrapped ships to move sanctioned cargo through the world’s most-watched chokepoint
The Malacca Wire
Washington’s Indonesia defense pact is not an alliance upgrade. It is part of a chokepoint architecture
The Wrong Factory
How Elbit Systems’ European footprint became a targeting map for actors striking Ukraine’s defense supply chain
The Surveillance Economy
A Hangzhou startup with no satellites tracked the U.S. military’s pre-strike posture in real time. The imagery came from American companies. Washington has no answer for that.
The Closed Loop
Russia refined Iran’s drone in Ukraine, is now sending it back, and is photographing US bases for Tehran. Ukraine is the only country that has fought this weapon at scale.
March 2026
The Export Chain
Ukraine is no longer just striking Russian oil facilities. It is systematically attacking the export terminals, refineries, and transport nodes that turn energy into war finance.
How Iran Is Still Firing
The mechanics keeping Iran’s missile and drone campaign alive
The Hidden Layer of Iran’s Drone Industry
Why hitting factories and bases is not the same as collapsing production
Hrulf: In His Own Words
Jean-François Ratelle commanded the Norman Brigade, fought for Ukraine, and was killed in March 2024. Before he died, he sat down with me and explained why he was there
The Drone Clock: How Long Can Iran Sustain Its Campaign?
A five-variable sustainability model for Iran’s one-way attack drone campaign.
The Pressure Trap
How Iran’s campaign to coerce the Gulf is accelerating the regional alignment it was meant to prevent.
Mapping Iran’s Drone War Infrastructure
The network of production sites, bases, and launch nodes targeted in Operation Epic Fury
Can Money Buy Ukraine’s Playbook?
What the Gulf Can and Cannot Learn from the Drone War in Ukraine
Threat forward: Iran Doesn’t Need to Close the Strait. It Just Needs to Keep It Expensive.
How war risk premiums became Tehran’s most effective weapon
The Architect Returns
Ahmad Vahidi helped build Iran’s proxy network decades ago. Now he’s back in charge as the system he designed goes to war.
The Axis Without a Head
Iran’s command structure is gone. But in Iraq, the militias it built are still armed, still funded, and already shooting back.
February 2026
The Warning Wasn’t Theatrics
A step-by-step look at how Iranian-backed militias are signaling readiness as U.S. force posture shifts in Iraq
The Footprint: China’s Space Infrastructure in Latin America, Examined
A satellite imagery analysis of China’s deep space station in Argentina’s Patagonia region.
Iran: Window Closing
An open-source assessment of strike indicators
Europe’s Postwar Reckoning
Europe isn’t just facing a defense crisis. It’s facing an identity crisis over what the postwar settlement was and whether it’s over.
